LATEST | Petrol price forecast for April passes R5 a litre
· The South African
Global energy markets were shaken on Thursday as escalating conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring and raised fresh concerns about inflation and fuel affordability.
The price of Brent crude climbed above $115 per barrel following renewed attacks linked to Iran, after an earlier strike associated with Israel targeted infrastructure connected to the country’s vast South Pars gas field.
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In a widening pattern of disruption, missile strikes reportedly hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar – the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export hub. Additional drone attacks targeted a refinery in Saudi Arabia, while fires were reported at energy installations in Kuwait.
The attacks have intensified fears of supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply flows.
Fuel price pressure builds locally
The impact of rising global oil prices is already being felt in South Africa.
According to the Central Energy Fund, mid-month data for March shows substantial under-recoveries in fuel prices:
- Petrol: up to R5.20 per litre
- Diesel: approximately R8.64 per litre
These figures indicate strong upward pressure on fuel prices for April if current trends persist.
Rand weakness adds to strain
South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel makes it particularly vulnerable to global price shocks.
Fuel costs are influenced not only by international oil prices but also by the rand-dollar exchange rate and domestic taxes and levies.
With the rand also under pressure, the risk of sharp increases at the pumps is amplified, raising concerns about the broader cost of living.
Inflation risks mount
Higher fuel prices are expected to ripple across the economy, pushing up transport and production costs and potentially driving inflation higher in the coming months.
Oil prices have now surged from below $60 per barrel earlier this year to well above $100, reflecting mounting geopolitical risk and uncertainty in global supply chains.
Tough months ahead
If tensions in the Middle East persist, South African motorists could face significant fuel price hikes in April, adding strain to already stretched household budgets.
While the current pricing cycle is still underway, the latest data underscores a worrying outlook, with global instability likely to keep fuel costs elevated in the near term.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93increase of 468 centsPetrol 95increase of 520 centsDiesel 0.05%increase of 852 centsDiesel 0.005%increase of 864 centsIlluminating Paraffinincrease of 1 058 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 468 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 520 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 852 and 864 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 1 058 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $107.24 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.76/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on either Tuesday, 31 March or Tuesday, 7 April (TBC).