Explaining Packers early-round draft strategy with 4 previous picks
· Yahoo Sports
The Green Bay Packers have confounded their fanbase with their selections in the first round plenty in recent years, regularly passing over a prospect who had become a fan favorite.
In Ted Thompson’s final draft as general manager, he traded out of the first round, eschewing the chance to draft T.J. Watt, later picking Kevin King instead.
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More recently under Brian Gutekunst, the Packers did not take Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 2023 draft, or Cooper DeJean in 2024. Both were fascinations of the fanbase and like Watt, went on to excel in the NFL.
Those two recent examples are an ideal jumping-off point to explain how the Packers operate in the early rounds of the draft.
In 2023, Green Bay took Lukas Van Ness with the 13th overall pick. He embodies one of the core principles of how they have drafted in Round 1 under Gutekunst, as a truly elite athlete at a premium position.
He posted an "elite" speed score using the Relative Athletic Score (RAS) system, running a 4.58 40 at 6-5, 272 pounds. Gutekunst has placed a premium on exceptional speed in his first-round picks, with nine of his ten having an "elite" speed score. Jordan Love was the only exception.
It is no coincidence that both times Gutekunst has made a pick in the top half of the draft, he took a pass rusher who was a top tier athlete and also had the kind of production they look for, with Rashan Gary being the other selection.
Those types of edge rusher prospects are just not available outside of Round 1.
Of the pass rushers who went after the Packers next picked in Round 2, Keion White was not productive enough and was also a hybrid defensive tackle/end, while Tuli Tuipulotu did no pre-draft testing and was on the smaller side for an edge rusher.
The player a lot of fans wanted was Smith-Njigba, who ended up going seven picks later to Seattle. Looking at his profile overall, he was simply a player Green Bay was never very likely to prioritize in Round 1.
Part of that was his college usage. As far back as PFF data goes, there is no instance of the Packers drafting a wide receiver who never played more than half of his snaps on the boundary in any college season.
That standard by the Packers even applies to players who ended up being slot-only players for them after being drafted. JSN never played more than half of his snaps out wide at Ohio State in a season, and lined up out wide on less than 17% of his college plays. He profiled as likely a slot-only receiver entering the league, and that’s essentially what he was until this past season, when he moved outside and exploded.
The other element is speed. Smith-Njigba ran a 4.52 40 with a pedestrian 1.65 10-yard split. That 10 is slower than A.J. Dillon, Colby Wooden, Zach Tom, Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt, Tucker Kraft, Lukas Van Ness and Luke Musgrave, all of whom are at least 40 pounds heavier than JSN. He had an "okay" speed score using the RAS system, and elite agility testing, but he is not the kind of big, explosive athlete the Packers covet with their premium picks.
The Packers drafted Jayden Reed a round later. Reed was faster than JSN, posting a "great" RAS speed score with a 4.45 40 and a 1.53 10, and in fact the Packers claimed they clocked him in the 4.3s, which would give him "elite" speed. Unlike JSN, he played over 80% of his snaps on the boundary across his last two college seasons. He has only really played in the slot for Green Bay, but there was at least more evidence he could play outside if needed.
Gutekunst has made reference in the past to prioritizing offensive and defensive linemen over smaller positions like receivers when they need to separate prospects. When it comes to the big guys, the old saying is "the good lord only made so many."
If they wanted a pass rusher with top tier size, athleticism, and the kind of production they want, they needed to take that player in Round 1, whereas they were able to get everything they wanted from a receiver prospect in a Round 2 player like Reed.
Whispers since that draft claimed that if the Packers had taken a receiver in round one that year, it would have been Zay Flowers. This would have been a surprise based on his lack of size, but he played 65% of his college snaps on the perimeter and had an elite RAS speed score.
The point of this is not to defend their draft decisions, just to explain them. In hindsight, they would have taken JSN, but so would nearly every team if they could turn back time. There is logic to their process though.
In 2024, Green Bay took Jordan Morgan at the back end of Round 1. A three-year starter at left tackle with elite speed. Similar to Van Ness, that is a profile which is hard to find, and it fell into the Packers’ lap at number 25 overall, which is even more rare, and too good to pass up.
The first tackle taken in Round 2 was Patrick Paul, whose speed was not quite as impressive and importantly, he may have been "too tall" at nearly 6-7 1/2. Green Bay likes the flexibility to move O-linemen around if needed, and Paul would be the tallest guard in NFL history if he ended up playing there. There is such a thing as too tall to play guard.
Breno Giacomini was the tallest offensive lineman the Packers have drafted since 2005 at 6-7, which is coincidentally the exact height of Robert Gallery, who was believed to be the tallest to ever play guard in the NFL.
Morgan is 6-5, giving the Packers the ability to cross-train him at guard and get him into the starting lineup there, which is what they have done.
The next tackles to go were Blake Fisher, who was not as athletic and was a college right tackle (the Packers covet college left tackles), Roger Rosengarten, who was also a right tackle, and Kingsley Suamataia, who lacked experience, which is another point of emphasis for Green Bay.
Cooper DeJean was the popular choice among Packers fans, and he did not end up going in the first round at all, being selected 40th overall by the Eagles. He has primarily been a slot corner in the NFL, which has less value and is likely partially the reason for him falling.
Green Bay found a slot corner of their own 18 picks later in Javon Bullard, who can also play safety (the Packers love versatility) and had more impressive speed. They took the prospect in Round 1 in Morgan that you cannot find later and then got their slot corner anyway in Round 2.
Again, DeJean has gone on to show the NFL he should have been drafted earlier, and the Packers, along with most other teams, probably take him if they could go back and redo the draft.
While these four picks the Packers made help to explain their philosophy, they do not justify it, as "passing" on JSN and DeJean do not look like wise decisions. But Green Bay was able to successfully fill those positions later in the draft, and given the current state of the roster, it is a good thing the Packers do have Van Ness and Morgan right now, as the left tackle and edge rusher spots would look pretty bleak if they were not on the team.
The Packers do not have a first-round pick this year, but the pillars of their early round philosophy – elite athleticism at premium positions and big guys over small ones – are worth remembering when trying to understand why they make the picks they do in the future.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Explaining Packers early-round draft strategy with 4 previous picks