Storm Warning: A golden opportunity
· Yahoo Sports
Two days after defeating Kansas, the Cyclones are back in Hilton Coliseum to take on the Houston Cougars. With two recent losses for Arizona, Houston now sits atop the Big 12 standings at 11-1, while Iowa State is in a three way tie for third. Since their loss at Texas Tech, the Cougars have won six straight, with all but one by double figures. Iowa State is currently opening at a -2.5 favorite, with ESPN giving Iowa State a 56.5% chance to win.
Saturday was fun for Iowa State
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In the highest profile game at Hilton so far, Iowa State demonstrated why they are still one of the contenders of the Big 12 and in college basketball as a whole. Five players scored into double figures, the cyclone defense won the turnover battle 13-6, and consistently looked like the better team starting with roughly six minutes to go in the first half. While the first eight minutes only produced a 6-6 tie, a 20-2 run to close out the half was the decider that sent the crowd into a frenzy. Hitting five threes in the first four minutes is what ultimately spelled doom for the Jayhawks, as Iowa State would prevail 74-56. After losing by 21 in Lawrence, Iowa State looked like the team with a point to prove, and they proved it with an exclamation mark.
One big takeaway from the afternoon is how engaged the crowd was from start to finish. It was certainly a tall task, with Iowa State falling in a trap game at TCU and Kansas entering the bout on an eight game win streak. There was energy from the jump and it sustained itself until the final buzzer sounded and the speakers blasted Mr. Brightside. In one of the toughest projected matchups in the Otzelburger era, Iowa State extended their home win streak over Kansas to four games, the longest such streak since the 80’s.
All gas, definitely no breaks
Iowa State’s reward for beating a red hot Kansas squad is to take on a red hot Houston team who is now in first place of the conference. This will be the second time Iowa State will host Houston as Big 12 opponents, with the first resulting in a 57-53 cyclone victory featuring a late game shot by Momcilovic that looked a lot like a classic Dirk Nowitzki fadeaway. That game was during winter break, so this will be the first time that this roster will witness Hilton at its best.
Houston is led by a two headed monster in Emanuel Sharp and Kingston Flemings, both averaging 16 points per game. They are currently ranked fourth overall in KenPom, with the 12th ranked offense and the 5th ranked defense. While they may lack in size, they play a similarly aggressive defense that is atop the league in turnovers forced and in turnover margin. They are also first in points allowed and point differential during conference play, so they are having a pretty good season.
So with this tall task ahead of them, what is Iowa State’s path to victory?
- High foul counts will favor Houston. These two squads are on opposite sides of the conference in free throw percentage, with the Cougars leading the conference at 78% while Iowa State is at the bottom with 65%. In a game where both defenses will be playing very aggressively, a stingy set of officials may swing the game to Houston’s favor
- Win by the three. Iowa State is currently second in the conference in three point percentage, while Houston currently sits at eleventh. If Iowa State can get to a significant lead early, that may be the difference maker as it may force Houston to adjust their offense away from their normal strengths.
Ball control, Ball control, Ball control. As stated before, Houston is in a league of their own for turnovers on both sides of the ball. Iowa State has gotten into the most trouble when the offense gets sloppy and gives the ball away. Keeping control of the ball will be as important as ever today.